News from the Home Team

This month's newsletter has a lot of helpful information—from personal finance tips, cybersecurity reminders, market commentary, to a great pumpkin pie recipe and an idea for a New England road trip! We hope you find a few things that are useful or interesting.

As the year winds down, we also wanted to share important year-end reminders:

• Take your Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) if applicable.
• Review any inherited IRAs with your financial professional to confirm the timeframe for drawing down those assets.
• Start considering when you need to make your retirement plan contributions.
• Take a moment to review your account beneficiaries. You'd be surprised how many people forget to update these, and you want to make sure everything still aligns with your current wishes!
• If you do not have a bank instruction linked to your bank account, consider doing so. This is a great convenience whether you need to take an RMD or simply withdraw from or add funds to your investment accounts.

We're here to assist with these year-end details, and we're always happy to coordinate with your CPA, estate attorney, or other trusted professionals to ensure everything stays in sync.

Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or want to talk through anything in more detail!

Market Insights

Cambridge’s monthly market insights break down the latest economic trends, inflation data, and policy shifts shaping today’s investment landscape.

Economic developments during the week were shaped by key inflation data, central bank commentary, and disruptions caused by the ongoing government shutdown. Together, these events offered insight into the Federal Reserve’s evolving stance and the challenges of navigating a data-constrained environment.

On Tuesday, October 14, Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the National Association for Business Economics, warning of “significant downside risks” in the labor market and signaling that the Fed may soon end its balance sheet runoff. Powell emphasized the difficulty of operating without full government data, noting reliance on private labor indicators and that substitutes for official inflation data are “less good.” His remarks reinforced expectations for a more cautious and dovish policy approach.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a 0.4% month-over-month increase, while Core CPI rose 0.3%, bringing the year-over-year Core CPI to 3.7%. These figures suggest inflation remains persistent but is not accelerating, supporting the view that price pressures are stabilizing.

Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) added complexity to the inflation picture. Headline PPI rose 0.5%, and Core PPI increased 0.3%, reversing the prior month’s decline. The data hinted at renewed wholesale cost pressures, which could eventually filter into consumer prices.

Meanwhile, the government shutdown delayed several key reports, including retail sales and the full employment summary. Bloomberg and other sources reported that CPI data collection was strained, and policymakers are increasingly “flying blind” without timely indicators. The shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating the Fed’s ability to assess economic conditions accurately.

Overall, the week highlighted the Fed’s balancing act: stabilizing inflation, monitoring labor risks, and adjusting policy amid limited visibility. Powell’s tone and the inflation data suggest a shift toward caution as uncertainty grows.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard
 

Week Ahead

This week’s economic calendar features several high-impact releases that could influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance:

• Wednesday, October 23: The existing home sales report will provide insight into the housing market’s health amid higher mortgage rates. A decline in sales could signal cooling demand, while resilience may reflect inventory constraints and continued buyer interest.
• Thursday, October 24: The initial jobless claims report will be a timely indicator of labor market health. A sustained increase in claims could reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed, especially if signs of employment softening continue to emerge. This data will be closely watched for confirmation of any labor market trend.
• Friday, October 25: The week closes with new home sales and the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. New home sales will shed light on builder activity and buyer demand, while the sentiment index will gauge household confidence heading into the holiday season.

With inflation appearing to stabilize and the labor market showing mixed signals, this week’s data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move. Market participants will be watching for confirmation of a cooling trend or signs that economic resilience may warrant continued caution.

This Month’s Spotlight

October is Financial Planning Month: Five Steps to Take Now

This is a great time of year to do a check-in on your financial situation. While it may not seem like it when you start, taking stock of where you stand financially helps reduce stress and gives you a stronger foundation to start the new year. In addition to the five tips we list below, don’t forget to ask your financial advisor if you have access to Cambridge’s CLIC Client financial planning tool. This is a free client-facing tool available to advisory clients and is a great vehicle to house and analyze the data you gather.

1. Organize Your Finances: Know Where Your Money Is Going
Review your income and expenses to identify where your money goes. This can seem daunting, but it is less scary than not knowing where you stand. You might be surprised by how much is spent on small, recurring items like dining out or subscription services. Organizing your finances can help you align spending with your goals, whether it’s saving for a home, retirement, or paying off debt. We have budget worksheets that can help you organize this information.

2. Build an Emergency Fund
Unexpected expenses are inevitable. If you don’t have an emergency fund, start small, then work toward covering 3–6 months of essential living costs. Set up automatic transfers to a dedicated savings account to make it easier to stay consistent.

3. Tackle High-Interest Debt
Eliminating high-interest credit card debt can free up significant cash flow. Consider consolidating your debt into a lower-interest loan or using a 0% balance transfer offer. Reducing this burden allows you to focus more on long-term financial growth.

4. Contribute to Retirement Savings
Check in on your retirement strategy. Aim to save at least 15% of your pre-tax income, including any employer match. If you're not there yet, increase your contribution by 1% annually, especially after a raise. Small steps today can lead to big rewards later, thanks to the power of compounding.

5. Review and Rebalance Your Investments
If you are managing your own investments, make sure they are aligned with your goals. Market changes can shift your asset allocation over time. Rebalancing ensures you stay within your risk comfort zone while positioning yourself for long-term growth.

Did You Know?

Financial Planning Fun Facts

• Pay Yourself First – Saving before spending builds long-term wealth.
• The Power of Compounding – Interest helps your money grow steadily over time.
• Budget = Less Stress – Tracking spending increases happiness and control.
• The Latte Factor – $5 a day = $1,800 a year — invest it and watch it grow!
• Planning Pays Off – People with financial plans accumulate twice as much wealth.
• Emergency Funds Save Futures – 3–6 months’ savings prevent debt spirals.
• Freedom Over Retirement – Financial independence means living life on your terms

Tech Tips

Protect Yourself Online: Cybersecurity and Scam Awareness
Cybersecurity Awareness, a reminder to stay vigilant. The FBI’s 2024 Internet Crime Report revealed over 859,000 complaints and $16 billion in losses—a 33% increase from 2023. Many incidents go unreported, so actual losses are likely higher.

Common Cybercrime Threats:

• Phishing/Spoofing
• Extortion
• Personal Data Breaches

Older adults are especially vulnerable: those over 60 lost nearly $5 billion, almost double the losses of those aged 50–59.

Cryptocurrency Scams: What to Watch For Cryptocurrency is popular for fast payments and anonymity, but it lacks the protection of credit cards. Once sent, crypto payments are not reversible unless refunded by the recipient.

Common Crypto Scams:

• Fake investment managers promising big profits
• Job offers that pay only in Bitcoin
• Romance scams involving requests for crypto or cash
• Unsolicited texts that lead to financial manipulation
  

Red Flags:

• Requests for upfront crypto payments
• Promises of guaranteed returns
• Pressure to move conversations to encrypted apps
• Claims of emergencies requiring money
  

Romance Scams: Emotional and Financial Risks
Scammers often pose as romantic interests online. They may:

• Send model-like photos
• Profess love quickly
• Isolate you from friends and family
• Cancel visits due to 'emergencies'

Recipe of the Month

October’s recipe of the month: Pumpkin Whoopie Pies! A soft, spiced twist on a classic favorite – the perfect way to celebrate fall flavors.

Pumpkin Whoopie Pies

Ingredients

• 3 cups all-purpose flour, substitute 3 3/4 c Pamela’s Baking Mix for gluten-free
• 1 Tbs cinnamon
• 1 tsp baking powder
• 1 tsp baking soda
• 1 tsp salt
• 2 1/2 tsp pumpkin pie seasoning
• 1 cup white sugar
• 1 cup light brown sugar
• 1 cup canola oil
• 3 cup pumpkin puree
• 2 eggs
• 1 tsp vanilla extract

Vanilla Bean Cream Cheese Filling

• 3 cup sifted powdered sugar – sifted
• 8 oz cream cheese at room temp
• 4 oz ½ cup unsalted butter, at room temperature
• 3 tsp vanilla paste or extract

Directions

• Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit
• Using parchment paper, prepare your baking sheets
• In a large bowl, whisk the flour, spices, baking powder, baking soda, and salt
• In a separate bowl, mix the white sugar and the oil. Add the pumpkin, mix to combine.
• Add eggs and vanilla and mix until combined
• Add the flour mixture about 1 cup at a time to the pumpkin mixture and mix until thoroughly combined.
• Use a small ice cream scoop to make mini whoopie pies but you can also use a larger scoop for larger cookies
• Drop rounded, heaping scoops of the dough onto the baking sheets, about one inch apart
• Bake for 8-10 minutes if you make mini-sized whoopie pies. (Regular-sized whoopie pies will take 10-12 minutes). Cookies are done when a toothpick comes out clean, or if you press on the top, they spring up and do not sink.

Vanilla Bean Cream Cheese Filling:

1. In a medium bowl, using a hand mixer, beat the butter until smooth. Butter should lighten in color. This should take about 3 minutes.
2. Add the cream cheese and beat until smooth, for about 2 minutes. Add the powdered sugar a little at a time, then add the vanilla and beat until smooth.

Assembling the Whoopie Pies

1. To assemble the whoopie pies, place one cookie upside down and top with filling. Place a second cookie on top. Pressing gently to distribute the frosting.

Notes

• If you do not have Pumpkin Spice seasoning, you can use 1 tsp nutmeg, 1/2 tsp ginger and 1tsp cinnamon.
• I like to have the pumpkin puree refrigerated before making the recipe, it helps the dough to keep its shape.
• Store in the refrigerator and eat often!
• It may be wise to conceal them in a box marked “broccoli” to deter whoopie pie thieves

Nutrition
Calories: 200,000
Source: Pinterest

October Travel Highlight

Discover Stowe, Vermont

For the quintessential New England fall experience, look no further than the quaint town of Stowe, Vermont. Bursting with foliage color through most of October, you’ll see some of the most picturesque scenery in New England throughout the town and surrounding areas during this cozy time of the year.

Stowe is also home to some of the best things to do in New England in the fall, and one that should be on everyone’s itinerary is the scenic foliage drive through Smugglers Notch. Considered one of the best fall drives in the Northeast, the road through the Notch is completely free to drive on and offers incredible views of the bright fall color.

Along the drive through Smugglers Notch, you’ll also pass by the Stowe Gondola, which is the perfect activity in October. The gondola takes you to the summit of Mount Mansfield, the highest peak in Vermont, and the foliage views at the top are absolutely jaw-dropping.

You’ll also want to enjoy all the small-town vibes along Main Street in Stowe’s village. Lined with cute eateries, lovely boutiques, and wonderful country stores, this is the perfect place to stock up on Vermont maple syrup, penny candy, and locally made Vermont products.

Source: Pinterest

Disclosures and Definitions

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world's first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the "fear gauge."
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.