News from the Home Team

Market fluctuations can trigger a natural human response: the urge to act. When headlines turn turbulent, the instinct to protect one’s portfolio by making quick changes can be overwhelming. However, recent psychological research suggests that frequent monitoring can actually warp our perception of progress. The more obsessively we track daily movements, the more we convince ourselves that long-term growth has stalled, which can lead to costly emotional decisions.^¹

The human brain does not naturally smooth out market noise; it amplifies it. Volatility is often confused with a lack of progress, and recent events are frequently over-indexed. This psychological pressure can make it difficult to do nothing, tempting many to sell at exactly the wrong time.

To help put this into perspective, we have attached an insightful piece from Franklin Templeton titled Learning from the Lessons of Time.^²

In addition to the historical insights from Franklin Templeton, below we cover a number of high-impact topics to help you navigate the year ahead:

• The "Last Chance" Tax Window: How to impact your 2025 tax bill with prior-year IRA contributions before the April 15 deadline
• 2026 Contribution Limits: A breakdown of the newly increased limits, including the significant "Super Catch-Up" available for those aged 60–63 under SECURE 2.0
• The "Super Will" Effect: Why Transfer on Death (TOD) accounts are one of the most powerful — and overlooked — tools in your estate plan
• Tech Tips: Essential guidance on spotting IRS impersonators and understanding how the Service will (and won’t) contact you

And last, but not least, a French Onion Beef Sloppy Joe recipe you can enjoy while reading over some interesting information on the Grand Canyon.

As always, please reach out to your financial advisor with any questions on these or any other topics. We are here to help you filter out the noise and stay focused on your long-term goals.

^¹Vaz, A., Mata, A., & Critcher, C.R. (2025). A watched pot seems slow to boil: Why frequent monitoring decreases perceptions of progress. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General.

^²Franklin Templeton (2024). Learning from the Lessons of Time.

Market Insights

Iran War Update

The U.S./Israel conflict with Iran has continued to cause significant volatility within markets, and given this, we felt it was important to provide an additional update. Given the importance of the Middle East from an economic perspective, a prolonged conflict would pose significant economic damage to the global economy. Unfortunately, it appears that we are entering a heightened escalation phase, with reports of strikes on critical energy infrastructure and continued disruptions to shipping lanes, while the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly choked off. 

While not a perfect measure of what is to come, prediction markets like Polymarket may offer a real-time snapshot of investment sentiment and collective expectations. As can be seen in the chart below, percentage odds of a durable ceasefire do not become likely before June, according to this system today.

Source: Polymarket (as of March 19, 2026)

Energy analysts broadly agree that sustained shipping disruptions or extensive damage to energy infrastructure would push energy prices, constrain discretionary demand, elevate input costs, and weigh on marginal growth. The global benchmark price for crude oil has risen to nearly $110 per barrel, nearly doubling since the start of the year. According to AAA, national gasoline prices have also risen from $2.82 at the start of the year to $3.91 as of March 19, 2026. The administration has attempted to counter some of these price increases with an announcement of 172 million barrels of oil to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the coming weeks and months. The market has largely looked through this announcement though, viewing the release as limited and insufficient to offset sustained supply disruptions. The U.S. (and other allies that have pledged releases) picture is complicated by the fact that the SPR was drawn down in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war and has not been meaningfully rebuilt in the years since that conflict began.

Source: Bloomberg (as of February 28, 2026)

How this war affects the economy in the coming quarters is still coming into view, but rates markets are beginning to question the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates in this environment. In fact, markets are pricing in a 27% chance of an interest rate hike, a scenario that was assigned a 0% probability just one week ago.

Source: CME FEDWATCH (as of March 20, 2026)

We have felt for some time that additional rate cuts are justified, so seeing the likelihood of additional rate cuts fade gives us pause. With that said, recent reviews of real-time estimates of GDP growth are still solidly positive, and as we mentioned in our 2026 Market Outlook the global economy enjoys several tailwinds that should keep it from slipping into recession even if important commodity prices remain elevated.

We should also note that wartime conditions necessitate significant government spending to be sustained, which also automatically boosts GDP as well. This conflict is no different, as it is being reported that the White House is requesting an additional $200 billion in funding related to war with Iran.

With respect to markets, it is also important to note that the U.S. is a modest net energy exporter, largely due to shale oil and natural gas production, which provides some insulation from global energy shocks. In contrast, European and Asian countries are highly exposed to a Middle East energy shock. The chart below lays out these relationships, and countries more situated towards the top right are more exposed. Notably, large economies like Germany, Japan, and Taiwan are among the more exposed. Interestingly, China is far more insulated than other large Asian countries.

Equity markets have reacted to these realities accordingly, as U.S. equities have outperformed international stocks by nearly 5% since the start of the war. With that said, international equities still lead U.S. stocks for the year-to-date period through March 19. This highlights the importance of maintaining diversification and sticking with a long-term investment strategy. This is especially important in the face of difficult headlines and elevated market volatility.

While we have not recommended any large changes to allocations as a result of recent market movements, we are watching the increased levels of market pessimism among equity investors to see if there is an opportunity. Historically, periods of geopolitical uncertainty have often created short‑term valuation dislocations rather than long‑term earnings impairment. Therefore, price declines across the major indexes would represent lower valuations, a welcome change in our view as equities had become overpriced in many cases.

We share our asset class recommendations and notes below, which will have more detail on these items in our upcoming quarterly investment update report. As always, we hope this information is helpful, and please contact the Cambridge Due Diligence Team (duediligence@cir2.com) at 800-777-6080 for questions.

Week in Review

Over the course of the week, markets digested a variety of U.S. economic releases as well as the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors focused on the durability of economic growth amid persistent inflation risks.

The focal point of the week was the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the tone of the meeting was more hawkish and both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation forecasts were raised to 2.7%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation progress has been slower than expected among elevated uncertainty stemming from energy prices and geopolitical tensions.

The February Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% month-over-month, well above consensus expectations and accelerating from January’s 0.5% increase. For investors, this reinforced concerns that inflation pressures remain persistent at the wholesale level. Core inflation also remained firm, rising by 0.5% over the month. This is closely watched by policymakers as an indicator of more durable inflation pressures that may eventually pass through to consumer prices.

Manufacturing data showed renewed momentum. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 18.1, well above expectations. This gain was driven by a sharp rebound in shipments, with new orders easing but remaining positive. Forward-looking manufacturing expectations remain elevated, highlighting ongoing optimism even as cost pressures and global uncertainties increase.

Housing data provided mixed signals. Residential construction improved as housing starts rebounded, driven primarily by an increase in multifamily projects. On the other hand, single-family construction remained subdued due to ongoing affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. New home sales also fell sharply to an annualized pace of 587,000 units, the lowest level in more than three years. This slowdown reflects the continued strain on housing demand due to affordability challenges and volatile mortgage rates.

Labor market data showed signs of stabilization. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 205,000, the lowest reading since January. This supports the view of a labor market characterized by limited hiring and limited layoffs. Continuing claims remain subdued, indicating that layoffs remain contained even as hiring momentum eases.

Economic and Capital Markets Dashboard

Week Ahead

The upcoming week will include multiple economic releases that will refine investor expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Tuesday will include the release of both the U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), offering an early read on economic activity over March. The Manufacturing PMI will be watched for confirmation that strength in regional factory surveys is translating to the national level. The Services PMI will be monitored for signs that consumer demand remains intact despite elevated prices and borrowing costs.

On Wednesday, the February import and export price indexes will be watched for signals on pipeline inflation. Investors will be assessing the pass-through of higher energy costs, tariffs, and currency effects into domestic pricing. Firm readings could reinforce recent economic readings reflecting persistent cost pressures.

On Thursday, initial and continuing jobless claims will provide a signal on employment stability. Low claims could reinforce the view that layoffs remain contained, even as firms stay cautious about adding new workers.

The week will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, including inflation expectations. This survey will be closely watched by investors and policymakers, as elevated expectations could support the Federal Reserve’s cautious, data-driven policy stance.

Disclosures and Definitions

Economic Indicators:

1. CPI: Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. PPI: Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5. PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6. Core PCE: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures exclude food and energy prices to provide a clearer picture of long-term inflation trends. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
7. Industrial Production: Measures the output of the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Source: Federal Reserve.
8. Mfg New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
9. Durable New Orders: Measures the value of new orders placed with manufacturers of durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
10. Durable Inventories: Measures the value of inventories held by manufacturers for durable goods. Source: Census Bureau.
11. Consumer Confidence (CB, 1985=100): Measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. Source: Conference Board.
12. ISM Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
13. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report: Measures the economic health of the non-manufacturing sector based on surveys of purchasing managers. Source: Institute for Supply Management.
14. Leading Economic Index: Measures overall economic activity and predicts future economic trends. Source: Conference Board.
15. Building Permits (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. Source: Census Bureau.
16. Housing Starts (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun. Source: Census Bureau.
17. New Home Sales (Mil. of Units, saar): Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold. Source: Census Bureau.
18. SA: Seasonally adjusted.
19. SAAR: Seasonally adjusted annual rate. 

Market Indices & Indicators:

1. S&P 500: A market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S., widely regarded as one of the best gauges of large U.S. stocks and the stock market overall.
2. Dow Jones 30: Also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it tracks the share price performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies, serving as a barometer of the stock market and economy.
3. NASDAQ: The world's first electronic stock exchange, primarily listing technology giants and operating 29 markets globally.
4. Russell 1000 Growth: Measures the performance of large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with higher price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
5. Russell 1000 Value: Measures the performance of large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe, including companies with lower price-to-book ratios and growth metrics.
6. Russell 2000: A market index composed of 2,000 small-cap companies, widely used as a benchmark for small-cap mutual funds.
7. Wilshire 5000: A market-capitalization-weighted index capturing the performance of all American stocks actively traded in the U.S., representing the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market.
8. MSCI EAFE Index: An equity index capturing large and mid-cap representation across developed markets countries around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
9. MSCI Emerging Market Index: Captures large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
10. VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index measures the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days, often referred to as the "fear gauge."
11. FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: Measures the performance of all publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the U.S., excluding mortgage REITs.
12. S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Represents the performance of the U.S. investment-grade bond market, including government, corporate, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities.
13. 3-Month T-bill Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of three months, reflecting short-term interest rates.
14. 10-Year Treasury Yield (%): The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of ten years, reflecting long-term interest rates.
15. 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (%): The difference between the yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds, often used as an indicator of economic expectations.
16. WTI Crude ($/bl): The price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
17. Gold ($/Troy Oz): The price per troy ounce of gold, a standard measure for gold prices.
18. Bitcoin: A decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator, which can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network.

This content was developed by Cambridge from sources believed to be reliable. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation. Information is subject to change. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice.

Investing involves risk. Depending on the different types of investments there may be varying degrees of risk. Socially responsible investing does not guarantee any amount of success. Clients and prospective clients should be prepared to bear investment loss including loss of original principal. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

This Month’s Spotlight

Doubling Down on Your Retirement Future

The calendar has turned to 2026, but your opportunity to impact your 2025 tax bill and long-term wealth isn't over yet. This month, we are focusing on two powerful levers: prior-year IRA contributions and maximizing your 2026 retirement plan limits.

1. The "Last Chance" Window: 2025 Prior-Year Contributions

You have until the tax-filing deadline — April 15, 2026 — to make contributions to a Traditional or Roth IRA and have them count toward the 2025 tax year.

• Boost Your 2025 Savings: You can contribute up to $7,000 ($8,000 if age 50+) for the 2025 tax year
• Lower Your Taxes: Contributions to a Traditional IRA may be tax-deductible, potentially reducing your 2025 tax liability
• Preserve 2026 Limits: By "backdating" your contribution to 2025, you keep your full 2026 contribution limit available for later this year

2. Maximize Your Momentum: New 2026 Contribution Limits

The IRS has increased several contribution limits for 2026, offering you even more room to grow your tax-advantaged savings.

• IRA Limits (Traditional & Roth): The annual limit increases to $7,500 for those under 50, and $8,600 for those 50 and older
• 401(k), 403(b), and 457 Plans: The elective deferral limit rises to $24,500
• "Super Catch-Up" for Ages 60–63: Under SECURE 2.0, individuals in this age bracket can contribute a higher catch-up amount of $11,250 to workplace plans, bringing their total possible contribution to $35,750

Why Act Now?

• The Power of Time: Contributing early in the year — or even for the prior year — gives your money more months to benefit from compounding growth
• Avoid the Tax-Day Rush: Coordinating your 2025 contribution now ensures it is accurately coded by your financial institution before the April deadline
• Backdoor Roth Opportunities: If your income exceeds Roth IRA limits, contributing to a non-deductible Traditional IRA now may still allow for a Backdoor Roth conversion strategy

Did You Know?

The Power of the TOD Account

For many clients, "Transfer on Death" (TOD) is a simple checkbox on a brokerage form, but it is actually one of the most powerful — and often misunderstood — tools in an estate plan. Here are a few "Did you know" facts to help your clients understand why these designations matter. 

1. The "Super Will" Effect

• Did you know? A TOD designation overrides whatever is written in a Will. If a Will says, "leave everything to my spouse," but a brokerage account has a TOD naming a sibling, the sibling gets that account — period.
• Why it matters: Clients should review these periodically to ensure their account designations haven't become "accidental disinheritances" after major life events like a divorce or a death in the family

2. Avoiding the "Probate Waiting Room"

• Did you know? Assets in a TOD account typically transfer to beneficiaries within weeks, while assets going through probate can be tied up in court for months or even years.
• Why it matters: This provides immediate liquidity for heirs to cover urgent expenses, like funeral costs or estate taxes, without waiting for a judge’s approval

3. The "Step-Up" Tax Benefit

• Did you know? Inheriting stocks through a TOD account usually triggers a "step-up in basis." This means the beneficiary’s "cost" for the stock becomes its value on the day of the original owner's death, potentially eliminating years of capital gains taxes if they sell it immediately. 

4. Privacy by Design

• Did you know? Unlike a Will, which becomes a public record once it enters probate, a TOD transfer is a private contract between the owner and the financial institution.
• Why it matters: For clients who value discretion, TOD accounts keep the details of their wealth and their heirs' identities out of the public eye

5. TOD vs. POD: What’s the Difference?

• Did you know? While they work similarly, POD (Payable on Death) is the term generally used for bank accounts (checking, savings, CDs), whereas TOD is the term used for investment accounts (stocks, bonds, mutual funds).

Tech Tips

How to Know It’s the IRS

Know how and when the IRS contacts you so you can protect yourself from impersonators.

Ways the IRS Will Contact You

The IRS typically contact you the first time by mail delivered by the U.S. Postal Service.

To verify it’s the IRS, search IRS notices and letters at IRS.gov. Some letters are sent from private collection agencies.

Other ways the IRS may contact you:

• Email: The IRS emails only with your permission, with a few exceptions like criminal investigations
• Text message: We text you only with your permission
• Phone: The IRS or private collection agencies may call you to address account matters. In some cases, IRS uses automated messages that direct you to IRS.gov to securely manage your account, make payments, or resolve an issue. The messages don’t share specific details.
• Fax: We might send a fax to verify or request employment information
• In-person visit: These are rare. Find out how and when IRS employees visit you or your business. We generally send a letter before we visit.

They don’t:

• Direct message or take payment on social media. Follow the IRS social media accounts, irs.gov/newsroom/irs-social-media
• Accept gift cards or prepaid debit cards as payment
• Call with automated messages that threaten or direct to websites that aren’t IRS.gov
• Threaten to call law enforcement or immigration officials
• Take your citizenship status, driver's license, or business license
• Mail tax debt resolution advertisements

Recipe of the Month

Irresistible French Onion Beef Sloppy Joes

These Irresistible French Onion Beef Sloppy Joes take the classic sandwich to a whole new level with a delightful mix of savory ground beef, sweet caramelized onions, and melted cheese on a soft toasted bun. Perfect for casual dinners, game day, or family gatherings, this dish combines comfort food with a gourmet touch that will impress everyone at your table.

Ingredients

For the Beef Mixture

• 1 pound ground beef (85% lean)
• 1 large onion, thinly sliced
• 2 cloves garlic, minced
• 1 tablespoon olive oil
• 1 teaspoon Worcestershire sauce
• 1 teaspoon soy sauce
• 1 teaspoon dried thyme
• Salt and pepper to taste

Step 1: Heat Olive Oil

Heat olive oil in a large skillet over medium heat until shimmering.

Step 2: Caramelize Onions

Add the sliced onions. Cook for 10-12 minutes, stirring often until they are golden and caramelized.

Step 3: Add Garlic

Stir in minced garlic and cook for an additional 1-2 minutes until fragrant.

Step 4: Brown the Ground Beef

Add ground beef to the skillet.
Cook until fully browned, breaking it apart with a spatula as it cooks.

Step 5: Season the Mixture

Drain any excess fat from the skillet.
Stir in Worcestershire sauce, soy sauce, thyme, salt, and pepper.

Step 6: Simmer

Let the mixture simmer for another 5 minutes so flavors can meld together.

Step 7: Toast Buns

While simmering, toast the hamburger buns in another pan or under broiler until lightly golden.

Step 8: Assemble Sloppy Joes

Scoop the beef mixture onto the bottom half of each bun.
Top with shredded Swiss cheese before placing on the top bun.

Step 9: Garnish and Serve

Garnish with chopped parsley if desired before serving. Enjoy your Irresistible French Onion Beef Sloppy Joes!

National Parks

Grand Canyon National Park Arizona

No trip to Arizona is complete without taking a road trip to the iconic Grand Canyon National Park. As one of the seven natural wonders of the world, you’ll have endless hiking, biking, and sightseeing opportunities, so it’s best to allot as many days as possible to explore this incredible geological wonder. 

March at Grand Canyon National Park is a "study in contrasts," where winter snow still blankets the 7,000-foot South Rim while the inner canyon begins to bask in spring warmth. It is a prime month for backpackers seeking mild temperatures and photographers chasing rare snow-dusted red rocks. 

Seasonal Highlights & Activities

• Optimal Backpacking: March offers "perfect" inner canyon temperatures (low 70s°F), avoiding the dangerous summer heat
• Wildflower Blooms: Early spring wildflowers like cactus blossoms and redbud trees typically begin blooming in mid-to-late March
• Ranger Programs: Free daily programs at the South Rim include fossil discovery walks, California condor talks, and geology presentations

Stargazing: Longer nights and generally clear spring skies make this an exceptional time for astronomy enthusiasts. As an International Dark Sky Park, March offers spectacular night views.

• Star Parties: Look for ranger-led constellation talks and telescope viewings, typically held near the Visitor Center or Market Plaza

Best Spots: Moran Point and Lipan Point offer some of the darkest skies on the South Rim

Morin Point

Lipan Point

• Wildlife Viewing: Spring activity increases for elk, mule deer, and the rare California condor 

Essential Travel Information

• Weather Variability:
  • South Rim: Highs average 51°F (11°C); lows average 25°F (-4°C). Snow is possible any day.
  • Inner Canyon: Highs average 71°F (22°C); lows average 48°F (9°C)
• Operational Status:
  • South Rim: Open 24 hours daily with all visitor services available
  • North Rim: Closed to vehicles and all visitor services until May 15
• Crowd Alert: The first half of March is quiet, but the second half sees a significant spike in visitors due to Spring Break

Sources:

https://bakemymeal.com/irresistible-french-onion-beef-sloppy-joes, By Julia, November 14, 2025

https://wanderingwheatleys.com/best-things-to-do-in-grand-canyon-national-park

www.irs.gov